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India's Second Covid Wave

May-2021 by Arvind Virmani

The second covid wave hit India with a bang during March-April 2021. This paper examines the date, models the two waves, makes out of sample projections using these models. It uses the basic S curve function, to develop a Dual -S curve model, which allows us to judge the predictability of the second wave. It matches the timing and duration of these events with the second wave to examine whether they could have set-off the second wave.

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