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Covid19 Day 150: What we know — and what we don’t know

What determines the magnitude of the spread of COVID19 within countries, and at any stage of the S-shaped cycle? Our exploration into various exogenous determinants leads us to three important conclusions — first, that higher temperatures mean lower infections; second, urban areas have a greater chance of infections than rural areas. This result lends support to social distancing as prevention hypothesis. Third, for infections per se, the share of elderly male population does not contribute to greater COVID19 infections.

The John Hopkins University data set on Covid19 starts the clock on January 22nd for four countries with their first observed corona case — Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the USA. However, China’s first case occurred sometime in November 2019 and in Thailand the first case was documented on Jan 14, 2020.

The world has gone through an incredible journey since then and even with Jan 1st as the start date, May 29th marked the 150th day of the crisis — a day we want to honor by discussing what we know, and what we don’t know; as of now, 154 days and counting

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