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EGROW Webinar by Galina Hale

Presentation Slides


EGROW Webinar by Barry Eichengreen

Presentation Slides


ASSOCHAM & EGROW 17th SMPC on August 3, 2021
Key Takeaways
  1. The overall GDP FY22 is expected to be 10% -/+ 1%, with downside risk higher because of the second wave.
  2. Inflation likely to remain elevated around 6 per cent.
  3. Nationwide third wave is highly unlikely unless there is a new mutation.
  4. Construction intensive infrastructure will pick up soon to stimulate private investment
  5. Policy interest rate retained in US, UK, Euro but raised in Russia, Brazil.
  6. Rural sector not as insulated as in the first wave.
  7. The gross NPAs could increase in the next few months.
  8. Need to be alert to capacity destruction & capital depletion in informal sector.
Recommendation of EGROW Shadow MPC

Members of EGROW SMPC - 4
Repo Rate - Retain at 4 percent - 4 members

Non Members – 3
Repo Rate- Retain at 4 percent – 3

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Recent Events


Pandemic Crisis 2020: Lessons and reforms


This paper presents a Vision of India in 2050, 30 years from now. Instead of detailing the current weaknesses in the economic and social indicators and the gaps relative to other countries, it looks at the broader developments & trends in the global economy and polity, which could be used by Indian government and its people to leapfrog to a better life. It then envisions a better India which can realistically be created. It also outlines a broad approach for this purpose. Greater detailing of actions, policies and institutional reforms would complement this vision and help make it into a reality.

Read the Policy Paper


The second covid wave hit India with a bang during March-April 2021. This paper examines the date, models the two waves, makes out of sample projections using these models. It uses the basic S curve function, to develop a Dual -S curve model, which allows us to judge the predictability of the second wave. It matches the timing and duration of these events with the second wave to examine whether they could have set-off the second wave.

Read the Working Paper

Research

India Vision 2050

Arvind Virmani
Download the paper as PDF … Abstract … This paper presents a Vision of a developed India in 2050. Two objectives drive this vision. One is fast catch-up growth that closes the gap with countries which were at the same stage of development as India in the 1960s & 1970s but have moved ahead since then. An understanding and utilization of global & domestic trends is critical to fast growth…
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India's Second Covid Wave

Arvind Virmani
Download the paper as PDF … Abstract … The second covid wave hit India with a bang during March-April 2021. This paper examines the date, models the two waves, makes out of sample projections using these models. It uses the basic S curve function, to develop a Dual -S curve model, which allows us to judge the predictability of the second wave. It matches the timing and duration of these events…
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Past papers of EGROW Researchers

Arvind Virmani … Economics papers … Investment: Corporate India and Households (September 2017) Deceleration, Demonetization and GST: Growth Prospects and Policy Solutions (September 2017) Fall and Rise of India (October 2013) A New Regional Doctorine for India (April 2013) Under Nourishment in Children: Causes of Inter country variation (October 2012) Building a New Global Financial Institution…
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