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Highlights

ASSOCHAM session on Shadow Union Budget

EGROW Webinar by Stephen G. Cecchetti

Programme on Shadow Budget 2022-23

Recent Events

Appointments: A More Effective Commitment Device for Health Behaviors

on 21-Jan-2022

ASSOCHAM & EGROW 19th SMPC on December 3, 2021

Key Takeaways

Indian economy is on path to achieve double digit GDP growth in FY22
Q2 GDP data and IIP suggest that recovery level is strong
Robust GST collection of Rs.1,30,000 crore in November is healthy sign
India’s merchants' exports are performing well.
India's focus for the medium term would be to reiterate jobs and trade
Inflationary pressures are persisting
Build up of reserves helps to stabilize INR
Omicron has raised downside risk to global GDP.

Recommendation of EGROW Shadow MPC

Members of EGROW - 4
Repo rate retain at 4 per cent - 4
Stance:
Accommodative should continue- 3
Accommodative to neutral - 1

Non Members – 3
Repo rate retain at 4 per cent
Stance: Accommodative should continue

Research

Download the paper as PDF … Introduction … Progression of mankind necessitated the exchange of goods and services leading to the evolution of money from the ancient stones and shells to coins and eventually to the present fiat currency. Money has evolved with the evolution of societies and trade. In modern economies, central banks are in charge of the money supply in the economy. The evolution of…

Adopting good practices on public debt management in Asia and the Pacific

Amid rising public debt levels in many Asia-Pacific economies, this policy brief highlights public debt management practices that Asia-Pacific countries could adopt to benefit from lower financing costs and better risk management. It shows that the region has introduced a wide range of initiatives to enhance fiscal-monetary policy coordination, ensure separate and accountable debt management…

India Vision 2050

Arvind Virmani

Download the paper as PDF … Abstract … This paper presents a Vision of a developed India in 2050. Two objectives drive this vision. One is fast catch-up growth that closes the gap with countries which were at the same stage of development as India in the 1960s & 1970s but have moved ahead since then. An understanding and utilization of global & domestic trends is critical to fast growth…

India's Second Covid Wave

Arvind Virmani

Download the paper as PDF … Abstract … The second covid wave hit India with a bang during March-April 2021. This paper examines the date, models the two waves, makes out of sample projections using these models. It uses the basic S curve function, to develop a Dual -S curve model, which allows us to judge the predictability of the second wave. It matches the timing and duration of these events…