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Fifth EGROW Shadow MPC Meeting

Sixth EGROW Shadow MPC Meeting

Talk by Prakash Loungani, Assistant Director, IMF, Washington DC

Seventh EGROW Shadow MPC Meeting

Talk by Romain Wacziarg, Professor of Economics, Hans Hufschmid Chair in Management, UCLA

Eight EGROW Shadow MPC Meeting


GDP estimation in India- Perspectives and Facts

Primary Contributors: Bibek Debroy, Rathin Roy, Surjit Bhalla, Charan Singh, Arvind Virmani

“Resolving to seek no knowledge other than that of which could be found in myself or else in the great book of the world, I spent the rest of my youth traveling, visiting courts and armies, mixing with people of diverse temperaments and ranks, gathering various experiences, testing myself in the situations which fortune offered me, and at all times reflecting upon whatever came my way so as to derive some profit from it.”
- René Descartes

1. India’s improved GDP methodology with base year 2011-12

1.1 GDP calculation has always been an imperfect art. Irrespective of the methodology, there are always some areas that require extrapolation, estimation and sometimes even guestimates based on past trends. However, the essence of the exercise is to always pursue perfection in calculations in a manner that best reflects a country’s situation. India has frequently revised its GDP calculation methodology and the latest one by Central Statistics Office (CSO) that changed the base year to 2011-12 along with other methodological changes (as many countries do regularly) was no different. Key changes over past years also have involved new base years, incorporation of latest datasets, coverage of new activities and adoption of international standards.

Link to the paper

Is India overestimating growth? ‘Arvind Subramanian’s GDP formula is political, not intellectual’

EGROW SHADOW MPC – Recommendations for June 6, 2019

Recommendation of Rate Reduction –

50 bp – 3

25 bp - 3

35 bp - 1

Prediction of Rate Reduction- 25bps cut by 4 members of EGROW Shadow MPC

Policy Stance- Accomodative- 5

Neutral- 2

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Dr. Arvind Virmani, Chairman, EGROW Foundation on GDP


EGROW Shadow Monetary Policy Committee – Recommendations for June 6, 2019

Arvind VirmaniSurjit BhallaCharan Singh
Dr. Arvind Virmani, Former CEA, MOF and ED, IMF … • … Encouraged by Regulatory actions taken by RBI to solve the Banking, PSB, NBFC problem of NPAs, Asset-Liability mismatch and Borrower bankruptcy. RBI & Govt must work together to clean up financial intermediation system quickly! • … Inflation outlook remains benign(domestic & international), but GDP outlook has deteriorated over past 6…
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Fiscal Transfers to Local Bodies in Karnataka: Trends and Policy Issues

Gayithri Karnam
Abstract … Local governments in Karnataka are highly dependent on state government’s financial support. Due to excessive dependence, the performance of local bodies becomes vulnerable to any adverse changes in the resource transfer. The vulnerability is greater when the grant giving agencies themselves are under fiscal stress. This paper observes that devolution to local bodies is highly…
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Input from experts on 3rd Shadow Monetary Policy Committee held in April 2019

Nripendra Narayan SarmaNaliniprava TripathyS.J.S. SwamidossMeenakshi Rajeev
Credit led consumerism will not improve quality of life … Nripendra Narayan Sarma … Consumption demand and personal consumer loans are on the rise, which is likely to fuel economic growth. The economy of the North-East India is highly driven by consumer demand. Consumption at the lower strata of the society is an indicator of growth. Allocation of government budget on developmental schemes and…
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Talking Financial Inclusion in Liberalised India - Book Review

Charan Singh
Talking Financial Inclusion in Liberalised India – Conversations with Governors of Reserve Bank of India … Edited by M.S. Sriram, Routledge, Oxon, U.K. Pp.xviii+229. Rs. 795.00 … The book explores the changing landscape for financial inclusion over the years for reforms and liberalisation, and is a collection of interviews conducted by Prof. M S Sriram with Governors from the Reserve Bank of…
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Board of Directors

Arvind Virmani
Charan Singh
Chief Executive
Ashok Vishandass
Rattan Chand
Mohinder Pal Singh



21-Jun-2019 Charan Singh
14-Jun-2019 Arvind Virmani