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ASSOCHAM & EGROW 21st SMPC on Apr 1, 2022

Recording of the Event

Key takeaways
  1. Global conditions have worsened since Feb 2022, given rise in commodity prices and geopolitical risks to supply chain.
  2. The growth rates in advanced countries, as published by the IMF in Jan 2022, for 2023 is estimated to be lower than that in 2022. The expected Covid, wave 4, adds to uncertainty. This can impact India’s exports.
  3. Analysis of components of CPI and WPI suggests that the rising prices in recent times, could be transitory.
  4. High inflation is the cause of tightening interest rate cycle in select, not all, advanced countries, like the USA as also in EMEs like Russia
  5. RBI should continue with policy of liquidity normalisation started from second half of last financial year.
  6. Contact Services are expected to recover in Q1 of FY23.
  7. GDP growth can be expected to range between 7.5 +/- 1 percent given the uncertainty in oil prices.
  8. If the oil prices rise to USD 115 per bbl then the Current Account Deficit could rise to 3.5 percent of GDP
  9. In uncertain times, gold serves as a relevant, much-demanded asset. The imports of gold can be expected to increase significantly, impacting overall economic policy.
Recommendations of EGROW Shadow MPC
Members of EGROW – 4

Repo Rate

  • Retain at 4 percent – 3
  • Increase – 1

Reverse Repo Rate

  • Retain at 3.35 percent – 2
  • Increase – 2

Policy Stance

  • Accommodative should continue – 1
  • Accommodative to Neutral – 3
Guests (Market Specialists and ASSOCHAM Members) – 3

Repo Rate

  • Retain at 4 percent – 2
  • Increase – 1

Reverse Repo Rate

  • Retain at 3.35 percent – 2
  • Increase – 1

Policy Stance

  • Accommodative should continue – 2

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