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EGROW Webinar by Ricardo Reis

EGROW Webinar by Srikanth Kondapalli

EGROW Webinar by Romain Wacziarg

EGROW Webinar by Upinder Sahwney, Narendar Pani, M.P. Bezbaruah, P.R. Devi Prasad, Vighneswara Swamy and Meenakshi Rajeev

ASSOCHAM & EGROW 14th SMPC on Feb 2, 2021

EGROW Webinar by Arvind Virmani, Surjit Bhalla, Ashok Vishandass, Rattan Chand, Col M.P. Singh and Charan Singh

EGROW Webinar by Arvind Virmani, Surjit Bhalla, Ashok Vishandass, Col M.P. Singh and Charan Singh

EGROW Webinar by Ricardo Hausmann

EGROW Webinar by V.G. Kannan, Madan Sabnavis and K. Ramachandran

Indian Govt policy reforms, in historical perspective: Big Bang reforms? by Arvind Virmani

Policy reforms for Economic Growth and Welfare by Arvind Virmani

EGROW Webinar by R.V. Verma, Daskhita Das and Darshini Mahadevia and V.S. Rangan

EGROW Webinar by Akhil Gupta

EGROW Webinar by Arvind Virmani, Surjit Bhalla, Suman Bery, Ashima Goyal, Ashok Vishandass, Rattan Chand, Col MP Singh and Charan Singh

EGROW Webinar by Arvind Virmani, Narendar Pani, Nripendra Sarma, Upinder Sawhney, E. Bijoykumar Singh, Vighneshwara Swamy, Arti Chandani and M.R. Narayana

EGROW Webinar by Nripendra Narayan Sarma and Chandrama Goswami

EGROW Webinar by HS Upendra Kamath and Mohan Vasant Tanksale

EGROW Webinar by Udaya Kumar Hebbar, Subrata Gupta and Manoj Kumar Sharma

EGROW Webinar by Resmi P Bhaskaran, Kuldeep Kaur, Mandeep Kaur Kochar, Rakesh Batabyal and Vijaylakshmi Balakrishnan

EGROW Webinar by Prakash Loungani

EGROW Webinar by Hans Genberg and Arvind Virmani

EGROW Webinar by Kamal Jani, Subash Kalia and Madan Sabnavis

EGROW & MIT Club Webinar by Arvind Virmani

EGROW Webinar by Richard Koss

EGROW Webinar by Anjini Kochar

EGROW Webinar by Avinidhar Subrahmanyam

EGROW Webinar by Upinder Sawhney and Dharmakriti Joshi

EGROW Webinar by Ashok Vishandass, C. L. Dadhich, Meenakshi Rajeev, Sukhpal Singh, Lakhwinder Singh and Gopal Naik

EGROW Webinar by Madhurjya Prasad Bezbaruah, Binoy Goswami and Raju Mandal

EGROW Webinar by E. BijoyKumar Singh & Indraneel Bhowmik

EGROW Webinar by Manorajan Sharma, R.K. Anand & Arvind Mohan

EGROW & ASSOCHAM Webinar by Ratna Sahay

EGROW Webinar by Ashok Vishandass

EGROW Webinar by Dr. Arvind Virmani

Recent Events

Pandemic Crisis 2020: Lessons and reforms

Pandemic Lessons

  1. Lockdown means shutting down part of the economy. If you shut 60% of the economy for a month/quarter/year, growth will be < -60% for month/quarter/year! it also means profits & wages will be nil in the part of the economy which is shut down. The critical problem for those who are in lockdown economy is survival and monetary & fiscal policy has to address this issue. The definition of essential goods & services was expanded to include communication & broadcasting, besides health & govt services.
  2. Pandemic means Contagion. Surfaces were initially thought to be the main transmission media, but we now know that stale air is the most important transmission media for the SARS corona virus 2. Therefore, "contact services", which involve presence of many strangers in closed spaces are the worst spreaders of the virus from infected people. The problem is heightened public bathrooms. Thus virus quality filters, UV-C virus killers and 100% vaccination are the only ways to revive Contact services, while the pandemic lasts.
  3. Transition from Lockdown to Normalcy, for other goods & services (ex Contact services), involves logistics disruptions & fragmentation of markets. Thus there can simultaneously be excess supply and excess demand in different geographies which were previously integrated. Because of massive temporary shift in demand patterns can leave supply chains unable to supply new sources of demand, while demand from traditional sources is less than supply, resulting in rise in consumer prices and decline in producer prices! Well targeted monetary, credit and fiscal policies are required during both lockdown and transition.
  4. Once normalcy is restored, policies for re-accelerating growth becomes central. Given lags in introducing policy & institutional reform, the process is best started during the transition, so that it's in place when most of the economy(ex contact services ) has normalized. There is another advantage to introducing reforms during the lockdown.There are no short term negative effects as lockdown economy can't get any worse. Even during transition, any additional disruption is marginal.

Pandemic Crisis and Reform

As an economist who has been professionally involved in every economic crisis since 1987, I started thinking about policy implications from the moment the Pandemic hit the World and India. The slogan that we have all become familiar with during the 1991 BOP crisis, flashed through my mind, " A, crisis would be a terrible thing to waste," Looking back at 2020, it is obviously been a tragic and debilitating year for millions of people in India and the World. But the silver lining is that, the Govt of India has used this period to undertake far reaching reforms, which merit the title of big bang reforms, which will put the economy back on the fast growth track from FY22, It is useful to list the reforms, most of which have taken place since September 2019:

Big Bang Reforms

  1. Natural Resource (coal, spectrum, oil, minerals) Sale Through Auctions
  2. India Bankruptcy Code: IBC
  3. Goods & Services Tax: GST (incomplete)
  4. Monetary Policy Committee
  5. DBT/Aadhar Inclusive Bank accounts
  6. Digital India, FinTech, E-governance eg GEM, PIT seeding & audit (Incomplete eg Bharat net)
  7. Investment Competition into Govt monopoly through Pvt Entry (Coal, Defence; Atomic energy, Space)
  8. Corporate Income tax (CIT)
  9. Education policy (foreign competition), including medical education
  10. Strategic Industry & Services Policy Framework (Privatization of CPSEs, PSUs, PSB)
  11. Agriculture Contracts act, APMC & ECA
  12. Labor Code (29 =>4)
  13. Electricity distribution, correction of excess fees/pricing for industry (in process)

Pending Reforms

  1. GST simplification (rates, exemptions, Cess)
  2. Direct Tax Code (SMEs) DTC => MSME, Start ups
  3. Direct Cash Transfer: DCT through mobile wallet (<=DBT)
  4. Skills: Apprenticeship Act; Rural self employed, e-skilling platform.
  5. External /EXIM simplification & EoDB; SEZ digitized self-filing & random post filing audit; FTAs (SCRI) with EU, USA;
  6. Financial Sector reform (continuing process)
  7. EoDB(States >60%) : Decriminalization & Reduction of regulatory compliance's, Digital filing and random post-audit of all remaining regulations. Experiment In SEZs, UTs (including land & real estate).
  8. States: Land(Govt monopoly of land; land use regulations; cadastral survey, transfer of title-EODB )

Re-Accelerating Growth

Despite an unfavorable external environment, these reforms if taken to logical conclusion, will put the economy back on the fast growth path of 7-8% average growth, during next decade.

Sharable link

Thirteenth EGROW Shadow MPC Meeting held on 1st December

Key takeaways and Inputs from Experts

EGROW Expert says - Contemporary issues
Dr. Arvind Virmani, EGROW Foundation
Q1. What has to be done to increase public expenditure?

A1: On the manufacturing side, consumer durables, Capital goods and construction are among the worst sufferers from the Pandemic so far. Existing Public investment & infrastructure programs must be accelerated sharply.

Contact Services like Restaurants, hotels, travel, tourism, retail trade, entertainment, are the worst directly affected by the Pandemic. The only way to revive demand for these services is to undertake public health expenditures which will reduce fears of infection and death from the corona virus. Public health expenditures on communicable and infectious diseases and public health education in media and schools must also be stepped up. The “Swatch Bharat” mission should be expanded to promote the modernization of urban, semi-urban sewage systems. State governments should set up similar schemes for semi-rural & rural areas.

A certification system should also be set up to certify Viral load/viral quality of air in public meeting rooms, halls and other large venues. The government should start a big loan program for manufacture & subsidized purchase of Ultra-violet(UV-C) filtration systems for centrally air conditioned spaces and UV lights for cleaning of all closed public spaces, particularly bars, party rooms and public bathrooms. Ventilation improvements in workplaces, offices, shops and commercial establishment could either be part of this program or be included in phase 2.

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Twelfth EGROW Shadow MPC Meeting held on 23rd Sep
Recommendation of EGROW Shadow MPC
  1. Recommendation of the EGROW Shadow MPC Members
    1 Member - 50 bp in October
    1 Member - 25 bp in October
    1 Member - 15 bp in October
    3 Members – Pause

  2. Forecast of the EGROW Shadow MPC Members
    1 Member – reduction by 25 bp
    1 Member – reduction by 15 bp
    4 Members - Pause

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Declaration of EGROW Essay Competition Result

Time will Tell

By Surjit S Bhalla and Arvind Virmani

Read the blog

Intra-Country Spread of Corona Virus: Wo Index

Intra-Country Spread of COVID and the role of Lockdowns

Covid19 Day 150: What we know — and what we don’t know

Covid19 Deaths: Variation Across Countries

Covid-19 updates

MSME के लिए चैंपियन्स पोर्टल

Discussion on PM's clarion call for self-reliant India at CII annual session

Privatisation of Public Sector Enterprises

RBI की ब्याज दरों में कटौती और असर

Atmanirbhar Bharat: Discussion on RBI's key announcements

Bad Bank

Will Doubling Spend Solve India's Healthcare Problems?

Decoding "Atmanirbhar Bharat"

आत्मनिर्भर भारत : 20 लाख करोड़ का पैकेज

Discussion on PM Modi's Rs 20 lakh crore relief package

Different strokes: A guide to lifting of lockdown, resuming production

Brick by brick: A revival plan for coronavirus-hit Indian economy, industry

Growth Implications of Pandemic

India in the red

लॉकडाउन और राज्यों के वित्तीय हालात

Urgent cures for Covid-19 economy (Podcast)

Urgent cures for Covid-19 economy

Corona pandemic presents the greatest opportunity for radical reforms

India may cap Covid deaths below 7,000, pandemic seen peaking in June

Coronavirus crisis: Govt must ensure food for all, prevent more people from falling into poverty

Covid-19 lockdown: Is there a road map for economic revival?

How COVID-19 will reset trade & commerce

Localising Globalisation

Jaan Bhi Jahaan Bhi

Impact of Covid-19 on the economy and the way forward

Tackling Covid-19 in Monsoon

India as new Destination for Global Business

Impact of Covid-19 on Indian economy

Intra-Country Spread of COVID and the role of Lockdowns

Intra-Country Spread of Corona Virus: Wo Index

Covid-19 may drag GDP growth down to 2.3%

Are we headed for lockdown 3.0?

Can India match Chinese success in post-Covid global economy?

Restoring Global Supply Chains

The Pandamic and The Nation

Coronavirus lockdown has slowed the spread of the deadly virus

कोरोना संकट: अर्थव्यवस्था की चुनौतियां और भविष्य

जान भी, जहान भी

Covid-19: An opportunity for battered banks to reinvent themselves

India takes a hit due to COVID-19 lockdown, What lies ahead?

Global Markets and Economy - The Big Picture

Post Covid World- Time to expand UNSC

Amid coronavirus gloom, a great opportunity beckons India

Open or not to Open the Lockdown?

'Lockdowns Are Costly But Govt's Hand Was Forced By Irresponsible Behaviour'

Covid-19: Enlist local bodies in fight against disease, hunger

Impoverished farmer and high product retail prices the new normal

MSME sector: Eight ways India can back its small enterprises

Impoverished farmer and high product retail prices the new normal

MSME sector: Eight ways India can back its small enterprises

An alternative safety regime for India after we lift the lockdown

Time to re-calibrate ‘India Vision 2020’

Socio-Spatial Distancing: Alternative to Lockdown

Implications of Pandemic & Consequent Economic Crisis: What to Do About It

This crisis is also an opportunity to radically transform economy

‘Good beginning by govt, RBI; but much more needs to be done’

Coronavirus: India should draw from past experience in fighting pandemics

Coronavirus outbreak: Farm sector will be the hardest hit

How To Handle Pandemic Crises?

Surviving Coronavirus scare: A wish list for Indian economy, industry

Where's The Plan To Tackle Eco Impact Of COVID-19

Effects of COVID -19 on Indian & Global Economy


Past papers of EGROW Researchers

Arvind Virmani … The Sudoku of Growth, Poverty and Malnutrition: Policy Implications for Lagging States (July 2007) Planning for Results: The Public Accountability Information System (March 2007) China's Socialist Market Economy: Lessons for Democratic Developing Countries! (June 2006) The Dynamics of Competition: Phasing of Domestic and External Liberalisation in India (April 2006) Sustaining…
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Future of Indian Banking from Public Policy Perspective

Download the paper in pdf … Abstract … Technology and social control on banks has helped in achieving a high degree of financial inclusion but the contribution of banks in channelizing financial savings to productive sectors has been sub-optimal due to large public sector debt and decline in financial savings in an increasingly consumption-driven economy. Desktop analysis of the annual reports of…
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Policy for Post-Lockdown Indian Economy

Arvind Virmani
Download the paper in pdf … The Indian economy is during Q2 and Q3 of 2020-21, in the transition from Lockdown to Normalization. Starting around March 21, 2020 the Indian Govt imposed one of the most comprehensive lockdowns, w imposed anywhere in the world. Only essential goods and services, constituting an estimated 40% of GDP and 55% of employment were exempt from the lockdown [Virmani and…
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Effectiveness of Containment Policies: Corona Virus Cases and Death Rates

Arvind Virmani
Download the paper in pdf … 1. Introduction … One of the Intriguing questions arising from the Pandemic crisis, is the effect of various social and economic containment/lockdown policies adopted by different governments. Only a few studies have used panel data to estimate the impact of specific containment lockdown measures on the growth of Covid 19 cases and of deaths. In this paper we estimate…
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Board of Directors

Arvind Virmani
Charan Singh
Chief Executive
Ashok Vishandass
Rattan Chand
Mohinder Pal Singh



26-Feb-2021 Arvind Virmani
26-Feb-2021 Charan Singh