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EGROW Webinar by K.R Antony

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The second covid wave hit India with a bang during March-April 2021. This paper examines the date, models the two waves, makes out of sample projections using these models. It uses the basic S curve function, to develop a Dual -S curve model, which allows us to judge the predictability of the second wave. It matches the timing and duration of these events with the second wave to examine whether they could have set-off the second wave.

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This paper presents a Vision of India in 2050, 30 years from now. Instead of detailing the current weaknesses in the economic and social indicators and the gaps relative to other countries, it looks at the broader developments & trends in the global economy and polity, which could be used by Indian government and its people to leapfrog to a better life. It then envisions a better India which can realistically be created. It also outlines a broad approach for this purpose. Greater detailing of actions, policies and institutional reforms would complement this vision and help make it into a reality.

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Recent Events


Pandemic Crisis 2020: Lessons and reforms


ASSOCHAM & EGROW 16th SMPC on June 1, 2021
Key Takeaways
  1. Extreme uncertainty in domestic and global markets making projections and policy is a challenging task
  2. In comparison with global scenario, India’s economic performance is not bad.
  3. Moderate downward revision to growth for FY22 in view of the 2nd wave impact and 3rd expected.
  4. MSME and MFI sector have been severely impacted by the 2nd wave.
  5. Urban unemployment at around 18 percent is worrisome.
  6. Continue with unchanged Repo rate and accommodative monetary policy.
  7. Supply chain disruption and its impact should be considered.
  8. Need for fiscal reforms, further simplification of GST.
  9. Need to announce a more aggressive GSAP 2.0 to avoid disruptions
Recommendation of EGROW Shadow MPC

Members of EGROW SMPC - 4
Stance - Accommodative - 4 members
Repo Rate -
Retain at 4 percent - 3 members
Reduce by 25 bp - 1 member

Non Members - 4
Stance - Accommodative - 4
Repo Rare- Retain - 4

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Research

India Vision 2050

Arvind Virmani
Download the paper as PDF … Abstract … This paper presents a Vision of a developed India in 2050. Two objectives drive this vision. One is fast catch-up growth that closes the gap with countries which were at the same stage of development as India in the 1960s & 1970s but have moved ahead since then. An understanding and utilization of global & domestic trends is critical to fast growth…
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India's Second Covid Wave

Arvind Virmani
Download the paper as PDF … Abstract … The second covid wave hit India with a bang during March-April 2021. This paper examines the date, models the two waves, makes out of sample projections using these models. It uses the basic S curve function, to develop a Dual -S curve model, which allows us to judge the predictability of the second wave. It matches the timing and duration of these events…
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Past papers of EGROW Researchers

Arvind Virmani … Economics papers … Investment: Corporate India and Households (September 2017) Deceleration, Demonetization and GST: Growth Prospects and Policy Solutions (September 2017) Fall and Rise of India (October 2013) A New Regional Doctorine for India (April 2013) Under Nourishment in Children: Causes of Inter country variation (October 2012) Building a New Global Financial Institution…
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