Skip to main content

Future Events

26-Sep-2019
Sixth EGROW Shadow MPC Meeting

29-Oct-2019
Talk by Prakash Loungani, Assistant Director, IMF, Washington DC

28-Nov-2019
Seventh EGROW Shadow MPC Meeting

20-Dec-2019
Talk by Romain Wacziarg, Professor of Economics, Hans Hufschmid Chair in Management, UCLA

30-Jan-2020
Eight EGROW Shadow MPC Meeting

Highlights

Working Paper


Policy Paper


Fifth EGROW Shadow Monetary Policy Committee Meet held on August 1, 2019


GDP estimation in India- Perspectives and Facts

Primary Contributors: Bibek Debroy, Rathin Roy, Surjit Bhalla, Charan Singh, Arvind Virmani

“Resolving to seek no knowledge other than that of which could be found in myself or else in the great book of the world, I spent the rest of my youth traveling, visiting courts and armies, mixing with people of diverse temperaments and ranks, gathering various experiences, testing myself in the situations which fortune offered me, and at all times reflecting upon whatever came my way so as to derive some profit from it.”
- René Descartes

1. India’s improved GDP methodology with base year 2011-12

1.1 GDP calculation has always been an imperfect art. Irrespective of the methodology, there are always some areas that require extrapolation, estimation and sometimes even guestimates based on past trends. However, the essence of the exercise is to always pursue perfection in calculations in a manner that best reflects a country’s situation. India has frequently revised its GDP calculation methodology and the latest one by Central Statistics Office (CSO) that changed the base year to 2011-12 along with other methodological changes (as many countries do regularly) was no different. Key changes over past years also have involved new base years, incorporation of latest datasets, coverage of new activities and adoption of international standards.

Link to the paper

Research

Does measure of financial development matter for economic growth in India?

Naliniprava Tripathy
The present study examines the impact of financial development on economic growth in India by using Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) model over 15 years from June 2003 to February 2018. The results of the study indicate that financial development has a positive and significant impact on economic progression both in short run and long run in…
Read More

How to Revive our Economy: Some Suggestions

Charan Singh
Download Paper in PDF … Is the Indian Economy slowing down? Indian Economy has unfortunately been in a difficult situation for the last one year. The RBI has scaled down the growth for 2019-2020 from 7 percent projected in June to 6.9 percent as announced on August 7, 2019. The reduction in projection for first half of the current financial year is stark, from 6.4 – 6.7 percent to 5.8 – 6.6…
Read More

Policy Reforms for Reversing Slowdown and Accelerating GDP Growth

Arvind Virmani
Download Paper in PDF … Abstract … This paper reviews the growth performance of the Indian economy from 2011-12 to 2018-19 using only the new GDP series with base 2011-12, and analysis the reasons for declining growth. It also compares the growth performance with the Growth performance from 2004-05 to 2011-12 using old series with base 2004-05. Introduction … The new series with base 2011-12…
Read More

Expert Speak – Inputs for Shadow Monetory Policy Committee of August 2019

S.J.S. Swamidoss
Note for Monetary Policy … Repo rate to remain unchanged … In the background of trend in the quarter April to June, 2019 and forecast for FY 2020, any rate cut by RBI may not be seen to become instrumental in accelerating investment and output. For FY 2020 forecast, whole sale price inflation (3.9 %), growth in exports (9.5%), imports (7.9%), industrial production (5.2%), fiscal deficit level…
Read More

Board of Directors

Arvind Virmani
Chairman
Charan Singh
Chief Executive
Ashok Vishandass
Director
Rattan Chand
Director
Mohinder Pal Singh
Director

Newsroom

Videos

15-Jul-2019 Rattan Chand
15-Jul-2019 Rattan Chand