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Effect of Demonetization & GST Complexity on Employment

31-Jan-2019Arvind Virmani

Within two days of demonetization, I gave a theoretical analysis of the economic effects of demonetization (https://www.facebook.com/143306922503237/posts/675660985934492/ ), which has stood the test of time! Subsequently I estimated and gave a range for the negative effect of Demonetization on GDP (Black Money and Demonetization ) and a precise calculation of the GDP impact (GrowthDeceleration2017sep.docx). However, it was not possible to estimate the impact on unemployment, because of the limited availability of reliable employment data, and the contradictory estimates put out by private (CMIE) and quasi-official sources (EPFO data given to NITI/individuals). Now that we have an unofficial account of NSSO survey data for 2016-17, an analysis is possible.

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