Recovery will be much faster than most forecasts
The bounce back in Q2 of FY22 will be much faster than expected by most forecasters, and therefore our earlier forecast of 10% +/- 1% remains with downside risk, said India’s former Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Virmani. As per the RBI, the economy is expected to grow 9.5% this fiscal while the government pegs growth at 11.5%. GDP had contracted a record 7.3% in the last financial year 2020-21. Most of the leading economists and rating agencies have slashed FY22 growth forecasts to sub 10% due to second virus wave and slow pace of vaccination.