Concentration of Global Manufacturing: De-Risking by Building Competitive Supply Chain
This paper examines the unprecedented concentration of global manufacturing value added and manufactured exports in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and its implications for major manufacturing economies and market democracies. It assesses evolving demographics, factor endowments, investment patterns, and dynamic comparative advantage among leading producers and exporters, with particular attention to India and high-income economies (HICs). The analysis finds a potentially complementary division of capabilities: HICs retain advantages in technology, risk capital, and market institutions, while India offers expanding demand, a large labor and human-capital base, infrastructure-related productivity gains, and entrepreneurial potential. The paper argues that these complementarities can support cost-effective diversification of global manufacturing supply chains. It proposes a policy framework to build a ‘trusted and competitive supply chain’ through deeper India–HIC economic integration through FTAs, CEPA, coordinated industrial policy, transitional tariffs and subsidies, and safeguards against trade circumvention, particularly in strategic sectors such as critical minerals, semiconductors, and key communication, computing, and control intermediates and other strategic manufacturing inputs.
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