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Effectiveness of Containment Policies: Corona Virus Cases and Death Rates

Jul-2020 by Arvind Virmani

One of the Intriguing questions arising from the Pandemic crisis, is the effect of various social and economic containment/lockdown policies adopted by different governments. Only a few studies have used panel data to estimate the impact of specific containment lockdown measures on the growth of Covid 19 cases and of deaths. In this paper we estimate the effect of eight different containment measures using panel regressions, in a formal model based on the S curve of propagation of pandemic.

Section 2 presents a brief literature review, while section 3 presents the formal model used in the estimation. Section 4 presents the results of the estimation of the model, using panel regressions with fixed effects. Section 5 explores the interaction of different containment measures introduced into estimating equations in the form of dummies. Section 6 explains the reasons for the cross-country differences in spread of cases and deaths and section 7 concludes the paper.

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