Agentic AI is an external shock that could trigger balance-of-payments crises across the Global South. Developing economies face “Macroeconomic Scissors”: falling dollar earnings from IT service exports alongside rising dollar costs of AI (API) imports. This creates an “API Toll Trap”, turning digital infrastructure into continuing rent paid to a US–China duopoly.

The paper argues that central banks and finance ministries must move beyond passive inflation targeting and IMF austerity. To cross the “Valley of Death”, when service-export FX buffers shrink while GPU imports widen the current account deficit, it proposes managed, sterilised reserve drawdowns through Sovereign Silicon Sinking Funds, backed by Sovereign Compute Bonds.

To prevent institutional capture, it recommends Directed Algorithmic Change, Public-Private Compute Auctions and Data Trusts, and Digital Public Infrastructure such as ONDC to raise productivity. Finally, it calls for a “Digital Non-Aligned Movement” using federated learning and an Algorithmic VAT to achieve collective scale.