Recalibrating India’s Afghanistan Policy: Strategic Imperatives in a Changing Regional Order
Afghanistan has long been a crucible of regional power politics. From the Persian and Greek conquests to the British and Soviet invasions, every empire that tried to dominate it eventually faltered. Yet, beyond its reputation as the “Graveyard of Empires,” Afghanistan has also served as a vital civilizational bridge between South and Central Asia. For India, its relationship with Afghanistan has been marked by shared history, cultural affinity, and recurring strategic significance.
Historical Underpinnings
The modern trajectory of India–Afghanistan relations began in the 19th century, during the British colonial period, when Afghanistan emerged as a buffer between the Russian and British Empires. The drawing of the Durand Line in 1893 permanently divided Pashtun lands, shaping regional geopolitics for over a century. After the Third Anglo-Afghan War (1919), Afghanistan regained its sovereignty and began asserting an independent foreign policy.
Independent India continued this tradition of friendly ties. King Zahir Shah’s four-decade reign (1933–1973) was one of relative stability and modernization, during which India maintained close diplomatic and developmental engagement. The relationship endured even during the Cold War, when India was among the few non-communist states to recognize the Soviet-backed government in Kabul.
The turning point came with the Soviet invasion of 1979, which triggered decades of instability. The withdrawal of Soviet forces in 1989, followed by civil war and the Taliban’s rise in 1996, fundamentally altered Afghanistan’s internal dynamics. India remained opposed to the Taliban regime and instead supported the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance.
India’s Re-engagement after 2001
Following the Taliban’s ouster in 2001 and the establishment of a democratic government, India re-emerged as one of Afghanistan’s key development partners. Its approach emphasized infrastructure, education, health, and governance—domains that projected India’s soft power and commitment to regional stability. Key milestones included the Afghan-India Friendship Dam (Salma Dam), the Parliament building in Kabul, and the Zaranj–Delaram highway, providing access to Iran’s Chabahar Port. India’s assistance—amounting to over USD 3 billion—was the largest by any regional power and symbolized a partnership rooted in mutual trust and developmental cooperation rather than political interference. The Strategic Partnership Agreement (2011) institutionalized collaboration in political, economic, and security spheres. It also signalled India’s readiness to play a long-term role in Afghanistan’s reconstruction.
Shifting Geopolitics and the Taliban’s Return
The U.S. withdrawal in 2021 and the Taliban’s rapid return to power forced India to recalibrate its Afghan policy. Initially adopting a cautious stance, New Delhi focused on protecting its citizens and assets while maintaining humanitarian assistance. However, as Afghanistan’s internal situation stabilized under Taliban control, regional dynamics began shifting.
Once viewed as Pakistan’s proxy, the Taliban has increasingly sought autonomy. Tensions between Islamabad and Kabul, especially over the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), have escalated. In October 2025, heavy clashes along the Durand Line underscored the deepening rift between the two. Pakistan’s airstrikes in Kabul and Paktika—coinciding with the Afghan Foreign Minister’s visit to India—highlighted Islamabad’s anxiety over emerging Taliban–India engagement.
These developments open a strategic window for India. The erosion of Pakistan’s influence in Kabul offers New Delhi an opportunity to rebuild its presence through pragmatic diplomacy and economic engagement.
India’s Strategic Rationale
For India, Afghanistan represents not only a historical partner but a strategic gateway to Central Asia. Its landlocked geography makes access routes vital. Through cooperation with Iran on the Chabahar Port, India has developed an alternative trade corridor that bypasses Pakistan. The Chabahar–Zaranj–Delaram route provides Afghanistan a direct link to the Indian Ocean, strengthening its economic sovereignty while integrating it into broader regional connectivity frameworks.
India’s re-engagement serves several strategic objectives:
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Reducing Pakistan’s strategic depth in Afghanistan and limiting cross-border terrorism.
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Counterbalancing China’s expanding influence, especially through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
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Securing access to energy-rich Central Asia, crucial for India’s long-term economic and strategic interests.
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Enhancing regional stability, which directly impacts India’s internal security and border management.
Recent Diplomatic Shifts
India’s evolving approach reflects cautious pragmatism. Though New Delhi has not formally recognized the Taliban regime, it has reopened its technical mission in Kabul, expanded humanitarian aid, and initiated discreet political dialogue. The Taliban’s Foreign Minister Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaqi’s visit to India in 2025 marked a significant thaw. His assurance that Afghan soil would not be used against Indian interests represented a meaningful shift from past hostility.
During the visit, India announced new developmental commitments, including a 30-bed hospital in Kabul’s Bagrami district, an oncology and trauma center, and several maternity clinics in Paktia, Khost, and Paktika. The launch of the India–Afghanistan Air Freight Corridor further signaled a shared desire to strengthen economic ties and restore trade connectivity.
Russia’s formal recognition of the Taliban government in mid-2025 has also influenced India’s calculus. Given New Delhi’s traditional alignment with Moscow, the move provided additional diplomatic space to engage with Kabul without appearing isolated.
Regional Realignments and Strategic Imperatives
India’s shift comes amid broader regional realignments. China’s growing influence in South Asia, the U.S.–Pakistan rapprochement, and political instability in Bangladesh and Nepal have all narrowed India’s strategic comfort zone. In this context, Afghanistan offers both a challenge and an opportunity—a test of India’s ability to balance principles with pragmatism.
Engaging with the Taliban is not an endorsement of its ideology but a recognition of geopolitical reality. A calibrated, interest-driven approach can help safeguard India’s assets, prevent the resurgence of anti-India terror networks, and advance its connectivity projects.
Policy Recommendations
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Calibrated Engagement – Maintain a low-profile but consistent dialogue with Taliban authorities, focusing on trade, connectivity, and humanitarian cooperation.
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Regional Cooperation – Deepen coordination with Iran, Russia, and Central Asian states to promote inclusive regional stability mechanisms that include Afghanistan.
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Security Vigilance – Enhance intelligence cooperation and border security to counter potential terror threats emanating from Afghan soil.
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Economic Diplomacy – Expand use of Chabahar and the Air Freight Corridor to boost bilateral trade and reinforce India’s role as Afghanistan’s developmental partner.
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People-to-People Linkages – Continue scholarships, medical aid, and cultural exchanges to strengthen India’s long-standing goodwill among Afghans.
Conclusion
India and Afghanistan stand at a critical crossroads. The shifting regional order—defined by the decline of U.S. presence, the rise of China, and Pakistan’s internal instability—demands a nimble, interest-based strategy. For New Delhi, disengagement is no longer an option. Constructive re-engagement, grounded in historical friendship and strategic foresight, can transform Afghanistan from a theatre of conflict into a conduit of regional cooperation.
Recalibrating India’s Afghanistan policy, therefore, is not merely about reviving old ties—it is about crafting a new framework for peace, connectivity, and strategic stability in the heart of Asia.