After nearly one-and-a-half years of negotiations, the US keeps moving the goalposts and, with them, the finish line. The real test of a negotiation is not how much is agreed, but what survives the final bargain.

Both sides are negotiating from positions of strength. India has diversified markets through a series of FTAs, giving it greater room to absorb the cost of tariff escalation. India’s strategy, therefore, is not to secure a deal at any cost, but to preserve negotiating space until the bargain is balanced, predictable and durable. A delayed deal may carry costs; a bad deal could lock them in. In that calculus, India may rationally prefer no deal over a deal that sacrifices long-term strategic interests for short-term tariff relief.

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