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Artificial Intelligence and Social Transformation: The Need for a Cautious Adoption Strategy in India

Every transformative technology in history has had winners and losers. In colonial India, the winners were in Manchester. The question before us today is whether, in the age of AI, the winners will be in Silicon Valley or in Surat, Siliguri, and Salem.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is emerging as one of the most transformative technologies of the 21st century. Governments around the world are investing heavily in AI to enhance economic productivity, improve governance, and accelerate technological innovation. The global AI market, valued at approximately USD 150 billion in 2024, is projected to exceed USD 1 trillion by 2030, reshaping every sector of the global economy.

India, with its large population of over 1.4 billion and a labor-intensive economy, stands at a critical crossroads. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), nearly 40% of global employment is exposed to AI-driven transformation. For India, the stakes are especially high given its unique labour market composition and developmental imperatives.

As per NITI Aayog, 2024 - "India is uniquely positioned; it has the talent, the data, and the democratic values to lead the world in responsible AI. But it must move decisively and inclusively."

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of AI's economic and social implications for India, the current state of the AI job market, household-level impacts, India's AI governance milestones, and actionable policy recommendations for a human-centered AI transition. This report evaluates AI not as a technology question but as a development justice question.

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